What if?
The world we almost lived in: 10 historical near-misses
Published on May 8, 2025
Image: The New York Public Library
History is full of near misses—moments where a single decision, accident, or twist of fate could have completely changed the world. From avoided wars to scientific breakthroughs nearly lost, these events remind us how fragile the course of history can be. Here are 10 times history almost took a dramatically different path.
The near-extinction event
Image: Toby Elliott
Around 70,000 years ago, a supervolcanic eruption in Indonesia nearly wiped out humanity. Genetic evidence suggests that the human population dropped to just a few thousand!
Had the decline been any worse, human civilization might never have recovered or developed as we know it today.
Misinterpreted flares
Image: K. Mitch Hodge
The Titanic’s distress flares were seen by the SS Californian, a ship just 10 miles away. However, the captain misinterpreted the signals and failed to respond.
Had the Californian arrived in time, hundreds of lives could have been saved. Instead, the tragedy cemented its place as one of history’s deadliest maritime disasters.
The harshest winter
Image: Elimende Inagella
In 1812, Napoleon’s invasion of Russia seemed unstoppable—until an unexpectedly harsh winter decimated his army.
The Russian cold, coupled with severe supply shortages, forced Napoleon’s retreat. Only 10% of his troops survived, marking a turning point in European history.
Tragedy on the Moon
Image: NASA
During the moon landing, Buzz Aldrin noticed a broken circuit breaker that could have stranded them on the lunar surface. Fortunately, he used a felt-tip pen to fix it.
If the makeshift repair had failed, Neil Armstrong and Aldrin might have been the first men to die on the moon.
The scourge of Europe
Image: Peter Kvetny
In the 14th century, the bubonic plague killed millions. It nearly wiped out entire regions, transforming Europe’s social and economic structure.
If the disease had been slightly more virulent, the Renaissance and Industrial Revolution might never have happened.
Gambling on the beach
Image: Tim Marshall
The Allies originally planned to invade Normandy on June 5, 1944, but a last-minute weather forecast prompted a 24-hour delay.
Had they gone ahead, bad weather could have doomed the invasion. The successful landing on June 6 helped turn the tide of World War II. Fortunately, we learned the lesson from Napoleon!
Magnicide avoided
Image: Mark Stuckey
In 1605, Guy Fawkes’ plot to blow up the English Parliament was foiled at the last minute.
Had it succeeded, much of England’s leadership—including King James I—would have been killed, likely causing a massive power shift.
A computer error
Image: Dan Meyers
In 1979, a training tape mistakenly showed a full-scale Soviet attack simulation on U.S. computers. Military leaders prepared to launch a counterattack.
The mistake was caught just in time. A nuclear war was narrowly avoided due to human intervention.
Saving winds
Image: Su San Lee
In 1281, a massive Mongol fleet attempted to invade Japan but was wiped out by a typhoon.
The storm, later called the "Divine Wind" (Kamikaze), saved Japan from conquest and altered the course of Asian history.
The lost nuke
Image: Oo Jiflip
In 1961, a U.S. B-52 bomber broke apart over North Carolina, dropping two nuclear bombs. One nearly detonated—five of six safety switches had failed.
Had it exploded, the blast would have been 250 times more powerful than Hiroshima, devastating the Eastern Seaboard. The incident remains one of the closest calls in nuclear history.
